Phi Phi islands - getting a little bit too popular for its own good

  

Phi Phi islands are arguably among the best known landmarks of Thailand. At one point of time, what propelled them to fame was Caprio's movie "The Beach", which was shot in Maya Bay and its whereabouts. But you don't need a movie to be impressed by the Phi Phi islands. 

The key question a traveller needs to ask is whether he/she wishes to opt for a day trip to Phi Phi from Phuket or Krabi, or chooses to stay overnight. To my mind, the latter is an easy choice and I will explain why.

Travelling to Phi Phi from Phuket costs about 500THB, and 450THB from Krabi. The Phuket ferry starts from Rassada pier which is close to old Phuket town but a fair distance from almost everywhere else. Therefore, it will take you about an hour to reach the pier. Thankfully, the ticket cost includes transfer from the hotel. The journey to Phi Phi from the pier takes another 2-3 hours depending on the seas. The long journey time from hotel door and back is one of the reasons why I recommend staying over at Phi Phi for the night. If you are traveling from Krabi, the ferry starts at Klong Jilad pier. This one is close to the town and I felt visiting Phi Phi from Krabi more sense (the journey time is also shorter at ~2 hours), although the ferries from Krabi are mostly dilapidated and unwelcoming.

The highlight at Phi Phi is a little island close by called Ko Phi Phi Lee, where the Pi Leh lagoon, Viking caves and Maya bay are situated. As it is part of a National Park, the best you can do is a day trip on a longtail boat after paying an entrance fee of 400THB. Children younger than 10 years need to pay half the price. Most agents offer a full- or half-day snorkeling trip that covers Ko Phi Phi Lee with monkey island or bamboo island, with an option to stay longer and watch the sunset. The key attraction of staying till sunset is an opportunity to spot glowing plankton, but the experience is underwhelming. What you will probably see is equivalent to catching a glimpse of a couple of fireflies in a dark garden. The trip costs about 400THB per person including snorkels and minor snacks, and if you are a group of four people or more, you can hire a longtail boat by yourself for about 1,500THB (plus the National Park fee). Going with a group seems more fun though. Our boat was called "Freedom Team 9" or something like that, and I will highly recommend the guide/pilot. You can probably seek him out yourself at the longtail parking close to the Patcharee bakery and negotiate.

The Pi Leh lagoon does not offer much in terms of snorkeling, but it is an excellent place for a relaxed swim. And of course, it's beautiful. The Maya bay beach is nothing outstanding, but if venturing a little deeper into the island, you will come across unspoilt tropical jungle straight out of an adventure book. 

To commute within the island, rely on walking. If you are staying at Ton Sai, you wouldn't have a problem at all. If you choose to stay at some of the more luxurious resorts at other parts of the island, you will need to rely on longtail boats, which will not be available throughout the day. While Phi Phi Don is a small island, the roads are quite confusing, with multiple ones running parallel to each other. I ended up walking more than I should have. 

While Phi Phi markets close down at about 8pm-9pm, the island has a vibrant nightlife that can go unnoticed. After 9pm or so, just move to the part of the island opposite to Ton Sai pier and seek out the Ibiza party. You will be able to spot it because of the fire throwers and their antics. If that is not to your taste, the pubs around Ibiza are also bustling with action. Just walk towards the Dubliner Irish Pub and you will find plenty of options. You are also likely to come across vendors selling alcohol buckets at attractive prices in case you wish to go prepared. This is the second reason why I recommend staying overnight at Phi Phi. 

For an early riser, I would recommend taking a stroll around the island in the morning hours. You can carry across a snorkel, some snacks and a bottle of water. There are no proper roads so will you need to do a bit of climbing. The general direction will be towards the Viking beach and onwards, and it is easy to cover most of the island given the short distances. The white sand beaches are a pleasure to walk on barefoot if you get tired.

One of the best places to eat in Phi Phi is the Patcharee French Bakery. The only downside is that it is a bit expensive and serving size for some of the items is inadequate. Some of the fancier places near and beyond the Banyan Villa have prices only marginally higher than the cheap eateries, so I would recommend having your dinner there. The Pad Thai is generally the best bet in case you wish to save money, but other standard fare like prawns with rice also cost around 80THB.

To stay in Phi Phi, you can either choose cheaper hotels such as the Panmanee or P2 Wood Loft, or 4-star ones like Banyan Villa and CoCo Beach Resort. It is not an easy choice to make but this is what I recommend. If you are staying for just one night, go for the cheaper hotels as most of the time would be spent at Phi Phi Lee and the night party. You would probably check out early next morning so doesn't make sense to pay just for the bed. For a longer stay of 2-3 days, the CoCo Beach Resort seems like a great but expensive choice. The Banyan Villa is somewhere in-between. I do not recommend staying too far from the Ton Sai Bay.

One of the problems with Phi Phi is that it is getting too popular for its own good. There is now a McDonalds just outside the Ton Sai pier. I don't want to be promised a faraway paradise just to see a global burger joint peering over my shoulder. This picture from the CoCo Beach Resort website gives you a fair idea of what is going wrong with Phi Phi. Just too many buildings and crowded streets. Despite that, what still works in Phi Phi's favour is that most of the crowd goes back to Phuket/Krabi after 4pm or so. The evenings, therefore, are still blissful.

Australia - a brief travel guide

Australia is huge. Any attempt to cover it in two weeks is extremely ambitious even for the most energetic traveller. While most of the activity and popular spots are on the east coast, I have heard great things about the isolated beaches on the west coast as well. Have a look at Australia's Instagram handle and the beaches north of Perth. Then there is central Australia and Uluru, which would take its own sweet time to cover. Bill Bryson writes a wonderful account of driving on the lonely road from Darwin to Alice Springs. That seems like a journey worth doing. Therefore, writing a travel guide for around two weeks is nearly impossible. You have to cover an entire continent. However, I am making an effort to cover the popular, touristy spots.

Sydney - Around 5-6 days are enough for Sydney. 

A place that I highly recommend is the Manly beach, travelling from Circular Quay by a ferry and spending an entire day there. For the athletic ones, try renting a bike and cycling up to the Sydney Harbour National Park for great views. The only interesting animal I spotted is the Echidna but the journey is worth it. I would also suggest having a salmon or a barramundi there. Personally, I prefer the bowl at Fishmongers, but you can check Tripadvisor for the best restaurants. The Pines is also a lively place serving great variety of beer. Perhaps when you come back in the evening, you can spend time on the Circular Quay or the Rocks Market. You will most likely get enough of the Harbour Bridge on this day.

You would need an entire day for the Blue Mountains. The journey is time consuming and takes about 2.5 hours by train from the Central station (choose a station that is closest to you) to Katoomba and a bus from there to Scenic World. Do note that Sydney transport is cheapest on Sundays, capped at about AUD 8.40, so try to keep the longest journeys on this day. Blue Mountains offers several treks, but the trip can get quite tiring if you choose to trek aggressively. If you are lucky, you will get a cloudy day without rain. In any case, make sure you carry plenty of water. I found the Blue Mountains underwhelming because they are similar to the Nilgiris and not as majestic as the Himalayas. For those who are the touristy types, Scenic World offers a cable car, rides, and a walk around the Blue Mountains that will give you enough opportunities to take pictures.

The day after Blue Mountains can be spent lazing around Barangaroo, Surry Hills, and shopping around Martin Place. Surry Hills has a good Indian food joint (Maya da Dhaba) and the locality is quaint. I loved the place. You can also get difficult to find Indian stuff at a shop close to Maya da Dhaba. Barangaroo has its own charm, and ideal to spend an evening. However, the restaurants here are expensive. For the aggressive trekker, there is an option of choosing the Harbour Bridge walk, which takes you almost to the top and offers great views.

The much photographed Opera House is somewhat overrated, although you surely cannot miss the landmark of Sydney. While visiting the Opera House, I would suggest spending some time in the Botanical Gardens, or the Museum, depending on what you prefer. A good day to visit the Opera House is when they have a performance. If you still have some time and energy left, visit Hyde Park and St. Mary's Cathedral on the same day. The latter is breathtakingly beautiful.

Do note that for all the souvenirs, one of the best places is Paddy's market. This is near Haymarket and offers Australian souvenirs such as kangaroos, boomerangs and magnet stickers featuring the Harbour Bridge, all made in China. 

For Friday evenings, you can consider visiting one of the pubs near Sydney Town Hall. It is perfectly OK to go pub hopping. The 3 Wise Monkeys near Kent Street is a popular one. I liked the PJ O'Brien's as well, especially around Christmas. 

If you like to get away from the hustle bustle of the city, save a day for the Royal National Park and the beaches nearby. It is close to Sri Venkateswara Temple and Stanwell Tops. A bus goes directly from the Stanwell station to the temple, but from there onwards, you will need to rely on Uber. This area has plenty of cockatoos, who are intrepid enough to perch close to you if you have something interesting to offer. The beaches here are generally better than Sydney. The wedding cake rock is close-by and ideal for people who like to post on Instagram (you can see why).

Lastly, you should visit Bondi beach, which is actually a full day affair. There is also a coastal walk around Bondi, where you can spot whales if you are there in the right season. For Bondi, I would just say go there and decide. Another option is the Glebe flea market. Pick that for a relaxed day. I am not sure if you would end up buying something, but a flea market has its own fans. If you have a spare day, you can consider the Manly Walk or Jervis Bay, both of them taking almost an entire day. There is a skydiving option as well close to Jervis Bay. Personally, I would not recommend visiting the Taronga Zoo. You can watch Kangaroos during the remaining part of the tour.

In Sydney, the Chemist Warehouse is a great place to get awesome deals on perfumes. The grocery stuff can be had from Coles or Woolworths (the former is better). For liquor, the best place is Dan Murphys, although the stores are difficult to find.

Gold coast - recommending 3-4 days here at best, because it is expensive and over-rated (looks great from the air though). 

The amusement parks can be skipped if you wish, as they would take up two days of your time. Among the amusement parks, SeaWorld is the worst and the one with the amusement rides is the best (Warner Bros Movie World). SeaWorld still seems to be stuck in the 1980s. They actually have a car and bike show which looks straight out of a Hollywood movie starring Chuck Norris. Movie World has two great rides. One is the Superman one, and the other is the DC Rivals hypercoaster, the longest and the tallest one in the Southern Hemisphere. 

Gold Coast is essentially a nightlife destination, so you can choose to spend your days visiting the touristy spots close by (there are plenty). Personally, I would recommend taking the surfing classes, which are immensely enjoyable. In three days, you should be able to get a decent hang of the surfboard. Gold Coast hotels are relatively expensive but choose a sea-facing one, close to the city centre. Do visit Infinity Attraction and do this very slowly, taking every bit of your time. Gold Coast also offers a transport card that can be used for unlimited travel. 

Cairns - I would spend at least 5 days here. My favourite destination in Australia.

For two days, you can take one of those tours where they make you stay on a boat overnight. You will spend the day scuba diving, snorkeling etc. You just cannot miss the Great Barrier Reef. Even though I spotted plenty of fish, a sea turtle grazing on the algae was the highlight.

You can choose the Daintree rainforest for one day. This is the oldest rainforest in the world and they might allow you to handle Koalas and feed Kangaroos. Later they will give you an option to have Kangaroo meat in your lunch. Extremely weird. Another option is to go for a crocodile tour. I stayed at the Travellers' Oasis, a lovely hostel, and the lady at the reception is a reliable guide. You can go by her advice. Do note that the sun is very harsh in Queensland and you would need to keep applying sunscreen and wear a rash vest when you are in the sea.

There are two great islands near Cairns - Fitzroy and Green island. You can choose to visit them both. I chose Fitzroy, which has among the best beaches in Australia, is ideal for snorkeling and kayaking, and is essentially a tropical paradise. 

Even otherwise, Cairns is a relaxed tropical town. You will enjoy every day that you spend here. If you are in a hostel like the Travellers' Oasis, you might come across a group who is singing and dancing. The market near the Esplanade is a nice place to spend the evening. Or for someone like me, you can just walk around the isolated streets, watching the sunset, the flying foxes, and experience the peace. 

Melbourne and the Great Ocean Road - You can cover this in one day, or spend 5 days here. I would recommend keeping 3 days for the Ocean Road on a hired car, and two days in Melbourne. You can get a hired car on an Indian driving licence. 

Go to the Twelve Apostles in the evening (any other time of the day does not work). You can also hire a helicopter here if you have money to spare. The area here is infested with flies, so you can carry some kind of a repellant. 

You should stay in one of those cottages that you find along the road. Technically, you can cover the road in one day, but go slowly, and stop wherever you like. Stay close to the Apostles on the day you visit those because it will be dark by the time you are done, and you might prefer not to drive then. The night sky is lovely if you stay in a cottage among the farms, although it can get frightfully cold once the sun is down.

For the next night, either choose Apollo Bay, Lorne or Port Campbell. Each coastal town has its own charm. If you choose a 3 day visit to the Ocean Road, you will spend the day either on the beaches around Apostles, surfing close to Angelsea, or trekking near Lorne/Apollo Bay. There are plenty of limestone rocks in this area and we were lucky to find a peaceful cave. Some people even spend a week on the Ocean Road, so the route has plenty to offer. Just pick what suits you best. I did not enjoy the trek near Lorne, where we hoped to spot Koalas at a close distance. Later on, near the lighthouse, we came across a baby Koala who was trying to get to the top of a tree. It was hardly two metres away! Somewhere on the small roads that branch away from the Ocean Road, we saw kangaroos grazing on a farm. The moment they spotted us, they leapt over the fence and vanished into the horizon with a few long jumps.

Uluru etc - Haven't been here but from whatever I have read, the drive here is mind blowing.

You will not find such terrain anywhere else in the world, and Uluru is breathtaking. It is highly recommended to drive there, taking your own time, instead of opting for a quick visit via a flight. Uluru is sacred to the Aborigines and has been handed over to them. I have also heard that the west coast of Australia is very pretty, but it is a long way off. You can try looking up the pictures and if you find them convincing enough, plan that along with the Uluru visit. 

Don't go to Canberra, even though it is tempting, being near the east coast. Instead, it might be a good idea to spend a day in one of those small Australian towns. Some people prefer to spend time in the wine growing areas of Australia, which are close to Sydney, such as the Hunter Valley.

That is all for now, but I will keep adding when I remember something. 

The Gulf of Thailand islands - Ko Phangan

 

If you are not in the prime of youth and not a party person, then visiting Phangan during the 'off-period' might be a very different experience. The island has emerged as a place for healing, yoga, and co-working. Phangan has distinct hippie vibes, very different from the other islands. At most places, the island is covered in tropical jungle, and you frequently come across millipedes, snails and frogs (also snakes sometimes). I came across a snail bigger than my fist. Koh Phangan gets exceptionally busy during the full moon and the half moon party days, which also drives prices up. Even though the party is held on Haad Rin beach, it could get difficult to find a hotel even close to Haad Yao, at the diametrically opposite end of the island. 

Travelling to Phangan from Samui costs about 350THB, and 600THB from Koh Tao. The latter is definitely expensive but Lomprayah runs the only service on this route as of now, and they are making hay while the sun shines. Phangan has an exceptionally poor service from the pier to the hotel, relying solely on open taxis that charge about 100-200 THB per person for a fairly short distance. The fares are open to negotiation but you will have the weaker hand because of lack of options. I found Mr Yu (0656463364) to be among the more reasonable ones.

To commute within the island, a scooter is the best choice, although with caveats. One, scooter scams are common so it is advisable to take a video of the scooter before you rent it out. The charges for scratches and damages can be exorbitant, running into thousands of bahts. Two, Phangan is a hilly island, so driving here can be tough. Some of the gradients are more than 45 degrees, needing exceptional control and expertise. Rentals are around 200THB for a 125cc scooter. Despite the steep slopes, 125cc should suffice for two reasonably heavy people. While Phangan was extremely hot and humid during the day, it was very chilly in the night due to the dense vegetation, so I recommend carrying a jacket while travelling on a scooter. 

Among the beaches, I visited Haad Yao, Haad Salad and the Secret Beach. The latter is relatively tiny and unremarkable, although preferable if one wishes to spend some solitary time. Between Haad Yao and Haad Salad, it is difficult to decide. Yao is the more commercial one and livelier, albeit marked with too many resorts that somehow spoil the landscape. From whatever I heard, Haad Rin is popular only during full moon parties - a tourist told me that 'Haad Rin is dead'. Perhaps because tourism has just started to pick up and the parties too are yet to reach their former glory.

Secret Beach

The town part of Phangan is in Thong Sala, where the pier is. This area of Phangan is completely avoidable. Most of the eateries closed down at 9pm, and even the ones that are open late offer mediocre food. There are plenty of these near the slumber party hostel. The only one that stands out is Outlaw, although it has a very meat-heavy menu, especially steaks. The Phantip food market and the food court are uninviting, perhaps catering to low-budget travellers. However, I would recommend the roadside fruit vendors, where you can get dragon fruits, mamelos and coconuts for a reasonable price. I personally liked Tee's juice shop, which is near the Haad Chao Phao beach area. The ginger turmeric shot and the star shake were particularly good, although the mango based drinks seemed equally popular. I found the Thai mango not as tasty as its Indian counterpart, but you can give it a try in the salad bowl.

Tee's Juice Shop

There are plenty of cheap places to stay in Phangan, although the area near Haad Yao seemed to be dominated by resorts. I liked my hotel, the Sunset Hill Resort, because of the views it offered from the hilltop. The manager, Elaine, was also extremely helpful. The best part of the hotel was the Infinity pool that offers great vistas of the green blue seas. In case you visit it just for the restaurant, you can surely try the green curry. Overall, for the stay the hotel is a bit expensive and you might prefer other options in case the stay is Phangan is for more than three days. A lot of the hotels are literally next to mangroves, so do carry an insect repellant. 

My hotel's restaurant

View from my hotel

Between Koh Tao and Koh Phangan, I found the former to be better. You will find most people on the internet saying that it is a tough choice, but for me, Tao is an easy win. It is more beautiful, more lively, a better night life, and has far better eating places. Its not that I am writing off Phangan. I would definitely prefer it if I wanted some time out with myself, just relaxing and reading, or striking conversations with fellow travellers. The island offers enough for physical and mental detoxification.

The untold story of India's action on climate change

Modi has done more for the environment than any other PM in recent history. Unfortunately, most journalists and intellectuals do not give him due credit for it. Therefore, it is not surprising that almost all appreciation that Modi gets is from international bodies, including the World Economic Forum (WEF), specifically for the role he played pertaining to the Paris Agreement. Recently, Modi also received the CERAWeek Global Energy and Environment Leadership Award “for his commitment to expanding India’s leadership in sustainable development”, in the words of IHS Markit vice chairman and Pulitzer Prize winning author Daniel Yergin.

What you get instead is cheap wisecracks on Modi’s comments related to global warming when the PM was communicating with school children. Or when he talked about extracting moisture from the air using windmills, a tested technology. Nonetheless, as we will demonstrate in this piece, numbers that highlight India’s progress are overwhelmingly in Modi’s favour.

As an environmentalist, we greatly value the work that the Modi Government has done on this front. To give it some perspective, let us look at this well-known slide from Al Gore’s “An Inconvenient Truth”. What the slide shows is the carbon emissions can be reduced readily to pre-1970 levels by acting on several achievable fronts. The Modi Government has addressed climate challenge holistically by addressing electricity consumption and generation, household fuel consumption, vehicle emissions, and transport efficiencies.

Slide from Al Gore’s presentation on how to reduce CO2 emissions to below 1970 levels

Before moving on to the constituent factors, we can have an overall look at where India stands on the Climate Change Performance Index. As can be seen below, India is rated very high, at par with some of the Scandinavian nations and Chile. This is even as the vast majority of G20 countries are trailing in the rankings. India’s track record of being the only “2°C compatible” country was flagged in a report released by a coalition of 14 global thinktanks. According to the IEA, India is already on track to exceed the commitments made in its nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement.

Source: CCPI 2021

To appreciate the steps India took to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases, we can look at the various components that Al Gore talked about.

Electricity Consumption

Progress on electricity end-use efficiency has been achieved primarily through the National UJALA (Unnat Jyoti by Affordable LEDs for All) mission. Over 36 crore LEDs, which are up to 75% more efficient than incandescent bulbs (ICBs) have been distributed, reducing about 38.6 million tonnes of CO2 emissions per annum. Effectively, now every household has an LED bulb that has been distributed by the Government.

Importantly, the Central government carried out multiple initiatives to bring down LED bulb prices through bulk purchasing and promoting local production. This, along with other factors, helped bring down the price of an LED to about INR 70 from INR 400 in 2014 in just five years. The scheme has also been successful in bringing about the rapid adoption of LEDs, and as per surveys, most low-income households would go for an LED bulb when the time comes for replacement.

We however do note that while the share of incandescent bulbs (ICBs) in total lighting devices sold had reduced, it still amounted to a sizeable 43% in 2018, with about 46 crore lighting points with ICBs as of 2017, indicating that the program is around halfway through. That said, the share of LEDs is now an impressive 46%, compared with less than 0.4% in 2014. Another area where the scheme can improve is the rural penetration of LEDs, as surveys show that the scheme has so far been urban-centric.

Transport Vehicle Reforms

In this domain, work has mostly concentrated on electric vehicles, cleaner fuel through stringent requirements, and expanding public transportation.

The transport sector is a key contributor to climate change, accounting for 23% of global energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The overall transport sector in India is estimated to emit about 15% of the CO2 emissions, which are increasing at a rapid rate –more than 6% per annum. An analysis of air quality in New Delhi alone shows that transport accounts for 19%, 39%, and 81% share in annual PM10, PM2.5, and NOx (toxic gases causing respiratory ailments) emissions respectively.

To promote cleaner fuels, the Modi government acted proactively by leapfrogging from BS-IV norms to BS-VI, skipping the intermediary stage. As a result, the emission norms of all models of two-wheelers in India are ahead of Europe (2021) and Japan (2022).

The government has also charted an ambitious plan to push for electric vehicles (EVs). NITI Aayog aims to achieve 40% electrification of cars and two-wheelers by 2032 (nearly 100% for commercial applications). While this is an ambitious target, even compared to China (20% by 2025), it demonstrates the Government’s intent to rapidly move to EVs.

The Government’s INR 100 billion programs under the FAME-II (faster adoption and manufacturing of electric vehicles) scheme, which materialized on 1st April 2019, aims to encourage faster adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles by incentivizing the purchase of electric vehicles and establishing the necessary charging infrastructure for EVs. According to the Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises (MHIPE), the subsidies allotted by the government under the FAME-India program have benefitted about 285,000 buyers of electric and hybrid vehicles to the tune of INR 3.6 billion.

The GST reduction on EVs from 12% to 5% and the additional income tax deduction of INR 1.5 lakhs on interest paid on loans taken to buy electric vehicles will provide further impetus. The GST framework can, however, be improved by removing the confusion related to hybrids, although the rates indicate an EV-backing stance. India would also need to invest substantial sums to create battery capacity (USD 10bn- USD 30bn), which could be taken up with private players as well. Investments would also be needed in charging infrastructure, going up to USD 20bn for equipment alone. We, therefore, view the high duties on fossil fuels favourably, as they would help shore revenues for this transition, even though they are politically damaging.

Another step taken by the Indian Government focuses on improving transport efficiency by developing a metro train network across India, increasing efficiencies at Indian Railways, and the bullet train project.

When the Modi government was formed in 2014, only five cities had metro services, which has increased to 18 cities in 2021, and will rise to more than 25 by 2025. The length of operational lines also jumped to 760 km in January 2021 as against less than 260 km before 2014. As per the Union Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, by 2024-2025, India will have over 1,700 km of metro network, the second highest after China. Increased metro coverage should not only help reduce urban congestion, but also emissions from 2-and 4-wheelers.

Indian Railways is also taking sustainable efforts to reduce its carbon print by 33% by 2030. There is a target in place for 100% electrification of India’s railways by 2022, up from 51% in 2019. This should significantly reduce diesel consumption, with locomotives driven by power derived largely from solar plants.

Finally, the bullet train project should help shift travelling from aviation to trains, which emit up to 90% fewer greenhouses gases compared to airplanes.

India has also recently launched the National Hydrogen Energy Mission, which will help reduce dependence on fossil fuels for mobility. The policy might also mandate fertilizer, steel and petrochemicals industries to shift to green hydrogen use.

Household Cooking Fuel

The Ujjwala Scheme (PMUY), where families below the poverty line (BPL) are provided free LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) connection has also helped in significantly reducing air pollutants. Ujjwala scheme has been praised profusely by the WHO report on global pollution in 2018.

The success of the scheme can be gauged from the fact that India’s active LPG domestic consumers have almost doubled in the last five years, from 14.86 crores in April 2015 to 27.87 crore in April 2020. LPG gas penetration has now reached an impressive 97.5% in Apr-2020, compared to 56% in the same month in 2015.

Most of the BPL families used coal, wood, crop residuals, dung and kerosene as a cooking fuel. By comparison, LPG is significantly cleaner. Notably, the carbon footprint of LPG is 20% lower than that of fuel oil and 50% lower than coal. LPG therefore helps to reduce CO2 emissions and helps to reduce Black Carbon (BC) emissions, which are not only the second biggest contributor of global warming, but also cause serious health problems.

Moreover, according to the State of Global Air Report 2019, published earlier by the Boston-based Health Effects Institute (an independent global health and air pollution research organization), an estimated 846 million people in India were exposed to household air pollution in 2017. That is 60% of the country’s population. A huge chunk of this number is said to consist of people living in rural areas, where coal, wood, crop waste and other types of biomass are still used for cooking.

That said, one of the major challenges before the government is that the annual average refill by a PMUY consumer is 3.28 cylinders compared to seven for others. To register full gains of Ujjwala, government should now start focusing on refuelling among low-income segments and rural areas, as huge number of households are not refuelling or using LPG as secondary source and still depending on traditional fuels.

Renewable Energy

The milestones achieved by Modi’s dispensation on renewable energy are another example of his distinctive commitment towards environmental goals. Even during his tenure as the Chief Minister of Gujarat, Modi came up with the ingenious idea of canal-top solar plants, which not only saved the problem of land for solar power but also reduced evaporation of water and increased the efficiency of panels by 2.5-5.0% by keeping them cool.

India emerged from nowhere over the last five years to become the fifth largest country in the world – after China, the US, Japan and Germany – in terms of total installed solar power capacity. In terms of new capacity additions, India ranks second in the world, after China.

Soon after coming to power in 2014, PM Modi had set a target of achieving 175 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022. The target was considered too ambitious and difficult to achieve. Yet, progress in this domain has proved the critics wrong, and by the end-2020, 136 GW of capacity had already been installed, from merely 2.6 GW in March 2014. It is expected that India’s clean energy capacity will reach 220 GW by 2022 (including hydropower) — surpassing the initial 175 GW target. Even International Energy Agency’s recent report in 2020 highlighted the narrowed gap between coal and renewables significantly in India during the lockdown period.

India has an even more ambitious target of 450 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. By that year, the government wants to meet half of the country’s power demand with renewable energy resources. Also, as per IEA, India will add just 25 GW of net coal-fuelled capacity by 2040, compared to an additional 690GW of solar during this period.

To achieve the ambitious target, the Indian government has invested thoughtfully in the entire value chain, along with much-needed policy reforms. These calibrated actions resulted in an 80% drop in setting up Solar PV projects between 2010- 2018, observed by IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency). As per the World Economic Forum, India is now producing the world’s cheapest solar power. Between 2010 and 2018, setup costs in India fell by 80%, the most precipitous decline of any country.

India has also been taking incremental, but important steps towards moving to a solar energy-focused economy. It is the only country in the world that hosts an all-solar airport (Kochi). The Agriculture ministry has also launched an ambitious scheme – Pradhan Mantri Kisan Urja Suraksha Utthan Mahabhiyan (PM KUSUM) – under which 20 lakh farmers would be provided funds to set up standalone solar pumps to replace kerosene-based irrigation pumps.

Conclusion

The above summary of initiatives under Modi leadership are not exhaustive, and merely intends to show the commitment of the Modi government towards climate change. As a leader, he has conceived and executed multiple climate-friendly initiatives, even during his tenure as Chief Minister of Gujarat. He was the first provincial leader to establish a department dedicated to addressing challenges emanating from climate change. Modi stated in 2009 that as an individual, climate change is a moral issue for him, therefore all his policy initiatives across sectors have shown a stamp for climate concerns. By personally leading the tree plantation drive, Namami Ganga, metro rail network across cities, and driving solar and wind energy installations, he has shown climate change is imbibed in the governance DNA of Modi dispensation. While the Modi government’s successful actions to address climate change in India have become a template for various governments globally, especially in the developing world, the achievements have been under-appreciated in India. Critics should evaluate the initiatives without a prejudiced mind. Years ago, it would have been unimaginable that India would be rated at par with some of the Scandinavian nations in terms of climate change action, ahead of the vast majority of G20 countries. That alone deserves a standing ovation.

Do not fall for the seductive charm of anarchy

There is nothing to admire in anarchy. The youth, in particular, gets drawn to it because of the sheer disdain for rules and authority. Recent literature and movies, 'Joker' being one of them, also have an underlying theme that anarchy is the antidote to authoritarianism and plutocracy. Many believe that anarchy is mankind’s natural state of being. It is not. Our closest relatives in the wild, chimpanzees, have an elaborate social structure with alpha males to implement law and order. Unfortunately, it is unadulterated patriarchy. The ‘Jokers’ of the world are motivated to prove that the elimination of the state will result in a freer, fairer society. Pennyworth, however, sees through the high-sounding philosophy of Joker and says wisely, ‘some men just want to watch the world burn’. As all kids know, those who have lost (I refrain from using the word ‘loser’) have a strong desire to upset the board and walk away.

Pennyworth's assessment of the Joker in Dark Knight (2008)

Anarchy is not the protector of the weak. It is the rule of the jungle. With no laws and security forces to protect the weak, they would be the first one to be preyed upon. Of all systems, anarchy favours the strong the most. Worse, anarchy favours those among the strong who are criminally minded. There can be no greater critique of it than Golding's excellent work - 'The Lord of the Flies'. Jack, who cannot be a leader in a world governed by reason and rules, breaks away to form his own band of ‘savages’, which ultimately seeks to silence anyone who talks about logic and justice. Piggy, who makes reasonable arguments, is murdered in cold blood and a worst fate awaits Ralph. The weak like Simon have no chance at all.

In 'Lord of the Flies', Jack breaks away from Ralph, forms his group of savages, and offers the head of a sow to the 'Beast' on a stick

Does a new order emerge from anarchy? Yes, almost always. Contrary to the third law of thermodynamics, entropy in such a system decreases. Disorder cannot sustain because social structures have to emerge where humans are involved. In a worst-case scenario, an anarchist state will develop into one where you have militia and warlords. The criminally-minded strong gang up together to rule over the weak. Or, you might witness the emerge of pseud-communism (the natural state for most communist states) - the resources are taken over by a group, but that resources are being shared is just an illusion. As communism is always centralised, the power rests with a few. The pigs in 'Animal Farm'. All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others.

There can also be a case where anarchy, if it starts as an anti-rich movement, ends up handing even more power to the wealthy. The militia has to be paid. The mobs can be bought. It is not that the mobs hate wealth, they just want it for themselves without going through the grind. They want the expensive stuff in the stores, but they want it now. The rich can buy the mobs, and the mobs would comply, as long as they are paid well. That is what has happened in most of Africa.

Lastly, will anarchy ever lead to an equitable society? Never. Social welfare programs can exist only in an ordered society. You have housing for the poor in the Netherlands, unemployment support in the US, and several social welfare schemes in the democracies of Europe. Communism promises equity, but by detesting the wealth creators, does not produce enough resources that can be shared with everyone. A movement in Cambodia that started with elevating farmers over doctors and teachers, with the latter being forcefully asked to work on farms, ended up with one of the worst genocides ever, leaving up to two million dead. The dictator who oversaw all this was the revolutionary Pol Pot, a Marxist-Leninist.

Phnom Basset, Cambodia: Long lines of refugees are once again on the move here some 17-kilometers from the capital. Civilian men, women, and children are fleeing to safer areas due to recent fighting. Civilian casualties have been heavy in the fighting, and at least 20,000 war refugees have flooded Phnom Penh since the beginning of 1975.

Anarchy is often a psychological reaction that stems from underlying hate against the establishment. It is the stuff that teenagers are made of. It is a rebellion against the rules and the person in authority, without having a solution in mind. 'Anything is right except what you are saying'. Anarchy is just rebelling without a cause. The youth is therefore naturally inclined towards it. But do realise that while it is okay to challenge the status quo (that is how most progress happens), inventors and visionaries always have a better solution in mind. Tearing down is the easy part. Even barbarians can do that. To build a Lighthouse of Alexandria on the rubble is what matters.

 

Robots vs. humans : The endgame

      It is nowadays fashionable to discuss that developments in artificial intelligence would eventually create a world where humankind is either annihilated or enslaved by the robots. As I have discussed before, science fiction authors have recently tilted towards plots featuring a post-apocalyptical world, where science is portrayed as a malignant force than a benign one as imagined by earlier writers. I attempt to examine the issue from the ground up. My conclusion may or may not be correct, but I hope the framework is scientific and objective.

     Proponents of the theory that robots would eventually be antagonistic to humans largely believe that the robots will be 'created in our image', and will therefore have similar motivations. Humans tend to be driven by greed, love, fear, and a range of emotions. Our desire to be powerful, to rule over others, and in extreme cases, use violence to establish our supremacy, largely stems from those emotions. To explain what causes those emotions is tricky territory. We can, however, say with reasonable certainty that as a species, the primary purpose of mankind is the survival and replication of its DNA. Many of our emotions are designed around that end-goal. 

     At a level that is easier for us to relate with, the purpose is maximising our long-term happiness. That is, to maximise the total happiness that we expect to accrue over our lifetime. While people have distinct personalities (one man's food is another man's poison), most "sources of happiness" are common across individuals. A warm hearth or words of praise would be desired by most. It is for this reason that human behaviour is somewhat predictable. Economists expect people to act in their best interests, and Generals anticipate soldiers to put up a defence when under attack by a raiding party.

     What would robots be driven by? Consider an algorithm for a turn-based game that a robot plays against a human. A computer cannot distinguish between a win and a loss unless we reduce the principles to mathematical terms. At each stage, the robot evaluates the possible steps and chooses the most rewarding branch in the decision tree. It would aim to maximise or minimise the score by taking the path that leads to the best-case scenario. Depending on the computational power, the computer will evaluate the available combinations, factoring in the human responses (like in chess) in each case, and play the winning move - the one that leads to the best score. What endgame are the robots likely to have in mind?

     Unfortunately, this is where things get murkier. The algorithms and the training data that drive the robots would be shaped by the philosophy of the people who design them. Robots are slaves of their algorithms (see pic). 

    A robot whose algorithm seeks to maximise the number of human lives saved might shoot down a perfectly compliant car driver to save a group of students crossing the road when the signal is red. A robot programmed to value diversity may act favourably towards a Latin American female than a white Caucasian male, even in a scenario where the action is unfair. In that sense, the motivations behind the acts of the robots would ultimately be framed by humans. Except for a scenario where you envisage a mad scientist who deliberately designs a robot whose aim is to annihilate humanity, the undesirable consequences of artificial intelligence are likely to be awkward, embarrassing surprises, akin to errors thrown by buggy code. Another possibility is that well-designed robots start behaving unpredictably just because the algorithms are not dynamic enough to change with the times. As they say, the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

     I cannot think of a scenario where robots start acting in self-interest. I tend to believe that Asimov's three laws of robotics would define all robot behaviour, precluding them from ending up as a powerful despot. Theoretically, machine learning enables robots to reprogram themselves, yet as long as they operate under the overarching three laws, I would not consider global domination by machines a plausible scenario. Unless, of course, human coders commit a blunder and circumvent the three laws.

 

     Nonetheless, we can expect robots to commit embarrassing mistakes in the interim, like a machine-driven car colliding head-on with a lamppost, or a medical algorithm making a disastrous diagnosis. Over time, we would have robots that imperceptibly mimic human behaviour (and therefore pass the Turing Test), but without our shortcomings. They might end up being powerful slaves of the few technology giants who have designed them, implementing their ideologies with an iron hand, and amplifying them over the globe. Yet, I believe robots will forever remain subservient to a human or a group of them, and never be the masters of humankind. A Skynet kind of software might cause a nuclear Armageddon, but not by design, purely by accident - a silly coding error or a garbled message. 

On the fall of Empires

       Many theories have been propounded regarding the fall of the Roman Empire, arguably one of the most influential empires the world has ever seen. While the reasons differ from one historian to another, the invasions by the nomadic tribes that eventually led to the sacking of Rome in 410 AD by the Visigoth king Alaric is considered a critical juncture by most. The Empire suffered a deathblow by 476 AD when the Germanic leader Odoacer staged a revolt to depose the Emperor Romulus Augustulus.

       It is interesting to examine what pushed the Germanic tribes to encroach the boundaries of the Empire. The migration was largely caused by the invasion of the Huns in northern Europe, a fierce group of warriors who have been reported to consume raw meat, which they heated by placing it between their thighs. The deformed skulls of the Huns resulting from artificial cranial deformation made them look even more ferocious. Ferocious enough to drive even the Goths towards the boundaries of the Roman Empire. But what drove the Huns to northern Europe? It is believed that between 338 and 337 AD, intense drought conditions prevailed in the Steppes. A drought that lasted nearly forty years and was among the worst in 2000 years. The drought made life on the steppe exceptionally harsh, leading to intense competition for resources, with some tribes forced to look outside the Steppes. Thus, eventually, it was an indirect impact of climate change that brought the Roman Empire to its knees. 

       Centuries later, the Islamic Empire suffered a similar fate when the failure of Nile floods in 969 AD caused widespread suffering and spurred a revolution in North Africa, bringing the Fatimids to power, who as Shia Muslims had a very different view about the legacy of Muhammad. The revolution created two separate power centres, one controlled by the Fatimids in North Africa, and the other by the Abbasids in Baghdad. The rifts created in the Muslim world effectively reduced the grasp of Muslims in Central Asia. The period was fruitful for the Byzantines though, who were able to take back lucrative territories, the taxes from which helped usher in a golden era of architecture and arts in Constantinople. 

       The world during this time was heavily dependent on agriculture, hence the impact of climate change was severe enough to topple powerful empires. We might not experience something as dramatic in today's world, although it would be too early to rule out such a possibility. A large part of the population in Asia is still dependent on agriculture, and even a powerful nation such as China is vulnerable to food security concerns. That said, given the long timelines, how will the impact of climate change play out in the latter half of the century is anybody's guess.