Will kill for food

The world is just one poor harvest away from chaos
- Lester Brown, Earth Policy Institute

Some time ago on this blog I had mentioned that World War IV might be fought for food. Things have not come to such yet, but civil upheavals due to food shortages have already been witnessed in Tunisia, Egypt and a host of other countries in Africa and West Asia.

Food riots, however, are not a new phenomenon in the region, and 2008 itself saw food riots in 25 countries, most of which were in Africa. In the 1960s, the governments in the African region had bought peace by subsidising food prices, but the system collapsed in 1980s, after these countries were forced to adopt market policies laid down by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The decontrol of prices back then had led to "bread riots" in Algeria and Jordan, which eventually forced the Algerian government to introduce multiparty democracy in 1988. The situation is incendiary once more after 20 years, with incidents of food driven immolation reported from Algeria, Eqypt and Mauritania. The governments have responded to the current situation by increasing subsidies on wheat and reduction of taxes on food, but the peace might not last long.

The Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) has said that sugar and wheat prices are at their highest levels since documentation of the prices started in 1990. Global wheat output has been badly hit by flooding in Australia and Pakistan, and even countries like Russia and China are thinking of importing large quantities of food-grain. This may not leave much on the table for poorer countries of West Asia and Africa, or they might be able to buy too less with their weak finances.

We might see food prices softening for brief periods, but the long term trend clearly points upwards, as yields are scarcely catching up with population growth. Global warming is not helping things either, as every one-degree rise in normal temperature causes a 10 per cent decline in yields. Weather extremes caused by warming, such as the flooding in Australia, might pose an even greater risk in the future, when the global food supply and demand is precariously balanced.

I see three scenarios emerging in the future. One scenario could be where the rich of the world (including governments) dole out free food to the poor as a bargain for security. Another when there is absolute anarchy, when man is reduced to the state of an animal, going out to scavenge for food at the dawn of every new day. The third could be where the militarily powerful nations take control of the food baskets of the world. Or worse, we could see the army break into factions, with millions of "food mercenaries" for sale. People who will kill for food.