Justice has been meted out, if only partially. HUL stock tumbled 2.5%
on 26th Oct, after the company posted its Q2 results. Going by the kind
of numbers we have been accustomed to see in the Indian economy since
the past six months, the profit growth of 17% was quite respectable. But
HUL is now under the 30+ PE curse, where any stock that is valued on a
one year forward PE of more than 30 times has to keep the show going to
sustain its valuations. This time, HUL failed to deliver strong volume
growth. And profits were supported by an 83% jump in other income. As I
had pointed out earlier, generating 10% plus volume growth, year on
year, for the next ten years or so, is presumptuous.
Unfortunately for HUL, it is not a multiple-reasons-to-buy story. The underlying theme is just growing consumption by the Indian masses. There are no benefits of reducing interest costs, or cyclical turnaround, or regulatory changes to be reaped here. And consumption, trust my words, is bound to falter. Disposable income has been propped up by NREGA in some years, and genuine all-round economic growth in others. Both these factors do not appear sustainable. Imported inflation, unemployment and indirect taxes are hitting discretionary spending hard. Look at the growth for consumer durables in the last two quarters (Hero moto, Maruti, TTK, Titan). Sales could pick up marginally in Q3 because of the festive season, but that would be a flash in the pan. Indians are not being pulled out of poverty at a fast pace anymore - the manpower intensive textile industry is struggling due to power issues and demand slowdown in Europe, and so are a lot of auto ancillaries. NREGA expansion would be difficult to sustain with this fiscal deficit.
For HUL, the high margin cosmetics segment is highly dependent on discretionary spend. The events at Zydus Wellness show that this is a tricky segment to operate in. Worse, history is not with HUL. Volume growth has dropped to 1.8% in the past.
As far as margins go, HUL is in its golden era. The prices of raw materials have declined, although HUL has not been able to capitalise on it because of rupee depreciation. The company's management aims at a volume growth of 9-11%, but cannot increase prices to achieve this ambitious target. Inflation matched hikes themselves are getting too heavy on the customer's purse. EBITDA margins are at record highs, and banking on EPS growth from substantial margin expansion might be too much to ask. Especially because the company posted profit CAGR of 10% in the past five years.
To cut a long story short, the going is so good for HUL, that it can only get bad.
Unfortunately for HUL, it is not a multiple-reasons-to-buy story. The underlying theme is just growing consumption by the Indian masses. There are no benefits of reducing interest costs, or cyclical turnaround, or regulatory changes to be reaped here. And consumption, trust my words, is bound to falter. Disposable income has been propped up by NREGA in some years, and genuine all-round economic growth in others. Both these factors do not appear sustainable. Imported inflation, unemployment and indirect taxes are hitting discretionary spending hard. Look at the growth for consumer durables in the last two quarters (Hero moto, Maruti, TTK, Titan). Sales could pick up marginally in Q3 because of the festive season, but that would be a flash in the pan. Indians are not being pulled out of poverty at a fast pace anymore - the manpower intensive textile industry is struggling due to power issues and demand slowdown in Europe, and so are a lot of auto ancillaries. NREGA expansion would be difficult to sustain with this fiscal deficit.
For HUL, the high margin cosmetics segment is highly dependent on discretionary spend. The events at Zydus Wellness show that this is a tricky segment to operate in. Worse, history is not with HUL. Volume growth has dropped to 1.8% in the past.
As far as margins go, HUL is in its golden era. The prices of raw materials have declined, although HUL has not been able to capitalise on it because of rupee depreciation. The company's management aims at a volume growth of 9-11%, but cannot increase prices to achieve this ambitious target. Inflation matched hikes themselves are getting too heavy on the customer's purse. EBITDA margins are at record highs, and banking on EPS growth from substantial margin expansion might be too much to ask. Especially because the company posted profit CAGR of 10% in the past five years.
To cut a long story short, the going is so good for HUL, that it can only get bad.
No comments:
Post a Comment