On the fall of Empires

       Many theories have been propounded regarding the fall of the Roman Empire, arguably one of the most influential empires the world has ever seen. While the reasons differ from one historian to another, the invasions by the nomadic tribes that eventually led to the sacking of Rome in 410 AD by the Visigoth king Alaric is considered a critical juncture by most. The Empire suffered a deathblow by 476 AD when the Germanic leader Odoacer staged a revolt to depose the Emperor Romulus Augustulus.

       It is interesting to examine what pushed the Germanic tribes to encroach the boundaries of the Empire. The migration was largely caused by the invasion of the Huns in northern Europe, a fierce group of warriors who have been reported to consume raw meat, which they heated by placing it between their thighs. The deformed skulls of the Huns resulting from artificial cranial deformation made them look even more ferocious. Ferocious enough to drive even the Goths towards the boundaries of the Roman Empire. But what drove the Huns to northern Europe? It is believed that between 338 and 337 AD, intense drought conditions prevailed in the Steppes. A drought that lasted nearly forty years and was among the worst in 2000 years. The drought made life on the steppe exceptionally harsh, leading to intense competition for resources, with some tribes forced to look outside the Steppes. Thus, eventually, it was an indirect impact of climate change that brought the Roman Empire to its knees. 

       Centuries later, the Islamic Empire suffered a similar fate when the failure of Nile floods in 969 AD caused widespread suffering and spurred a revolution in North Africa, bringing the Fatimids to power, who as Shia Muslims had a very different view about the legacy of Muhammad. The revolution created two separate power centres, one controlled by the Fatimids in North Africa, and the other by the Abbasids in Baghdad. The rifts created in the Muslim world effectively reduced the grasp of Muslims in Central Asia. The period was fruitful for the Byzantines though, who were able to take back lucrative territories, the taxes from which helped usher in a golden era of architecture and arts in Constantinople. 

       The world during this time was heavily dependent on agriculture, hence the impact of climate change was severe enough to topple powerful empires. We might not experience something as dramatic in today's world, although it would be too early to rule out such a possibility. A large part of the population in Asia is still dependent on agriculture, and even a powerful nation such as China is vulnerable to food security concerns. That said, given the long timelines, how will the impact of climate change play out in the latter half of the century is anybody's guess.